Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
